Capítulo 4. Identificación y pronóstico de los ciclos del empleo en Ciudad Juárez, Chihuahua, México

This chapter identifies and forecasts sectoral employment growth cycles in Ciudad Juárez to inform stabilization and development strategies. Using monthly IMSS formal-employment data (1997/08–2023/06) for total employment and key sectors, it extracts cyclical components with the Baxter–King filter and dates expansions and contractions by rule-based thresholds, measuring duration and average monthly depth. It then forecasts employment to 2024/12 with Box–Jenkins ARIMA models and derives predicted cycles. Results show four complete cycles for total employment, with the deepest recession in 2007/10–2009/05; manufacturing mirrors this shock and exhibits the largest depth, while construction is most affected during COVID-19. Policy recommendations emphasize investment, upgrading, and diversification.